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Ray White data shows April has brought a shift in the market

By Lyndsey Douglas

Over the years we’ve found the data regurgitated by the press can at times be incongruent with our own. Our latest data* shows some curious trends.

For background, Ray White represents about 10 per cent of all properties brought to market in Australia, and there’s scarcely a market in which we’re not active as agents.  

April has brought about an uptick in auction listings in the first fortnight with nearly 1000 properties on the market, the average volume we see over an entire month. This is a sign that motivated vendors are reemerging.  

Values reported by the big data houses show a stabilisation in recent weeks – but we don’t expect the media to report that!

In the lead up to March and April, vendor hesitation was apparent. In the first quarter of 2019 we saw  slightly fewer properties taken to auction with over a thousand per month conducted through Ray White in Australia in the first quarter, down by about 10 per cent on the previous quarter. Yet, our clearance rates decreased only 2 per cent over that time.

Farmland auctions number had nearly halved yet clearance rates haven’t fallen in this sector, indicating buoyancy in buyer availability and nervousness on the part of the vendor. Drought is continuing to impede agricultural land transactions in the eastern states.

The most prevalent shift in data is the number of vendors bringing their properties to market. Persistent conversation about decreased values has influenced vendors in their decision to sell with many delaying in hopes of an increase in values across the market.

Our data suggests volume and vendor hesitation has been a real factor influencing this market, but it looks like that is all about to change.

*Our data sample is collected via the new Express Auction Reporting System (called EARS). Within an hour of every Ray White auction we know the outcome, the crowd size, number of registered bidders, and active bidders. From this we have our own barometre of the market unimpeded by sensation headlines. Our position is that ‘clearance’, for instance, has been a limited definition for success of an auction campaign. In our opinion, accurate analysis of the market and a fair comparison of auction and private treaty must also include those sales prior to auction day, and successful post-negotiations on the same day. As a side note, our data shows on the 30th day of a listing being marketed, the property is five times more likely to sell in an auction campaign as opposed to private treaty. This gap highlights the effectiveness of auction in more challenging markets.

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